The Windows operating system has been plagued with fragmentation ever since
the 3.x branch of the OS was released on multiple PCs.
The transition from XP to Vista, to Windows 7 and most recently, both
iterations of the newest version of Windows, 8 and RT, as well as all patch
iterations and dot versions in between, has left a scattered landscape of PCs in
various states of OS upgrade version malaise. (Cough)
This has created problems for Windows developers when coding applications,
and when they test against different versions of the OS and different target
devices. (Oh my!)
The introduction of multiple versions of PCs, as well as Windows virtual
machines and emulators running in Mac OS X and Linux, has further complicated
this situation by creating additional "forks" of Windows, which have their own
unique application issues that developers need to address. (The horror! The
horror!)
In case you haven't figured it out by now, I'm not being serious. While I
have no fondness for Windows I know quite well that -- even though there are,
for example, six major versions of Windows 7 -- Windows is now and has been for
years the number one desktop operating system..
Why then must the fact that there are multiple versions of Android lead to
its being blown to smithereens? It seems like hardily a week can go by without
someone proclaiming how terrible Android fragmentation is. Somehow, just like
Windows back in its early days, Android keeps getting more and more popular.
Why? Because while operating system fragmentation is indeed a pain for
developers, it's not nearly as much of an annoyance as some people would have
you believe. Just like you can run pretty much any 32-bit Windows application —
save Metro and RT-specific apps -- on any version of Windows, you can run pretty
much an Android app on any Android device.
Mind you, the app won't always work well. Anyone who runs smartphone
specific apps on tablets knows that, but they will run. Smartphone and tablet
vendors know that and they like it. So long as they stick with Android as a
foundation, they're guaranteed to have tens of thousands of applications from
day one with every new device. Even companies that don't use Android, like
BlackBerry, know that this is a smart move, which is why BlackBerry 10 comes
with support for Android apps with its Dalvik implementation.
I can't see Samsung, HTC, or anyone else who matters in the hardware
business trying to fork Android. For customers, there's just too much value in
the common operating system foundation and the Google Play apps and store for
vendors to ignore.
Software developers see it the same way. Sure, they're willing to support
Apple iOS and Android. That's where the customers are. But support Tizen and
Firefox OS and Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10 and Ubuntu? That's asking a lot
more. Do you really expect them to rush to support Amazon Android, HTC Android,
Facebook Android, and Samsung Android? I don't think so!
Look at the numbers today. According to ABI Research, 58 percent of 2013's
56 billion smartphone app downloads will be Android apps. Apple iOS will have 33
percent, and far, far behind Microsoft's Windows Phone will have not quite 4
percent and BlackBerry will get 3 percent. So, who's going to write apps for
less than 3 percent of the market? Nobody that's who.
Let's be practical. The market can support two, maybe three major
smartphone and tablet operating systems; after that, you're looking at marginal
players.
Maybe there's room there for small players in some niches. Firefox and
Ubuntu, for example, are aiming at the low-end range between feature phones and
smartphones. I can see that. What I can't see is the successful Android
ecosystem being carved into progressive smaller, more labor intensive, and less
profitable portions.
The one company that might fork Android, but I doubt they would bother, is
Amazon. They have a unique business model. For them Android is not so much an
operating system as it is a sales channel.
But, again, why would they bother? They've already tuned it to use Amazon
Kindle Store instead of Google Play so they've already accomplished their
mission-critical goal. What on Earth could they have to gain by forking the
operating system? Nothing, absolutely nothing.
Look at the PC market. For years, Windows has dominated, Mac OS X has had a
significant single digit stake, and Linux hangs on at about 1% of the
marketplace. There are a lot of reasons that it's worked out this way, but
Windows "fragmentation" was never a problem.
For both hardware OEMs and software programmers the minor nuisance of
supporting multiple versions of Windows was never a real issue. Supporting
multiple, incompatible operating systems, however, is a problem. Wwhich is why
Mac OS X and Linux have remained niche desktop operating systems and why I
suspect Windows RT, which is incompatible with other Windows versions, will
never be successful.
So, with all that, do you really think Android hardware and software
companies will break compatibility when there are many solid business reasons to
keep using Android as their base? The Windows ecosystem companies weren't that
foolish and I don't think the Android ecosystem businesses are any dumber than
they are.
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